By Bill Bonfanti

BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR
THE WEEKEND OF SEPTEMBER 14-16 2012

There are two new films opening in wide release this weekend:  Disney dips into the well once again with the release of Pixar’s classic Finding Nemo in 3D and Sony Screen Gems releases the fifth installment of its popular zombie apocalypse series, Resident Evil: Retribution 3D.  The Resident Evil movies have remained rather consistent at the box office over the years and the latest chapter looks as though it will continue the trend.  Disney found major success with the release of The Lion King in 3D but their 3D release of Beauty and the Beast didn’t fare quite as well.  The fish out of the ocean tale will likely fall somewhere in between those two in terms of box office success.  Based on my estimates, the Top 10 will generate about $72.2 million over the weekend, down about 12.8% from last year when Disney’s The Lion King 3D and Contagion from Warner Bros. led the overall Top 10 to a total of $82.8 million.

Swimming back into theatres for the first time since 2003 is Disney/Pixar’s classic Finding Nemo, this time in the third dimension.  Aside from 2010’s Toy Story 3 ($415 million), Finding Nemo stands as Pixar’s highest grossing film with $339.7 million.  It is also one of their most beloved films.  Disney has had a long history of rereleasing its films in theatres, but more recently they have upped the ante by converting their beloved classics into 3D.  This will be the fourth time Disney has done this and they will do it again with the release of Monsters Inc. 3D later this year.  The Mouse House previously released the first two Toy Story films as a 3D double feature to decent results, but struck box office gold with The Lion King 3D last year.

The Lion King is one of the most loved animated films of all-time, and although Finding Nemo might be right behind it in overall popularity, the nostalgia factor may not be quite as strong.  The Lion King 3D opened with $30.2 million while Disney’s Beauty and the Beast 3D rerelease opened with $17.8 million a few months later.  Finding Nemo should land comfortably in the middle of these two openings for a few reasons.  Finding Nemo has more gender-wide appeal than Beauty and the Beast as did The Lion King.  Finding Nemo also appeals to toddlers and adults very much like Simba and friends.  The timing for the release is perfect.  There is really not much competition for family audiences with both ParaNorman and Disney’s own The Odd Life of Timothy Green limping to the finish line, but there are a few factors that could keep Nemo from reaching the heights of The Lion King.  One is that 3D rereleases have become commonplace over the last year.  Aside from the Disney films, audiences have already been treated to 3D versions of Titanic and Star Wars: The Phantom Menace.  The gimmick will overstay its welcome shortly as more and more old films get the 3D conversion treatment.  The other major factor is that Finding Nemo doesn’t have the same nostalgia factor as The Lion King as it is less than ten years old.  Many kids who enjoyed The Lion King when it was first released have kids of their own now and that was a driving force that Finding Nemo may not be able to compete with.  Nonetheless, with the lack of options in theatres for families, the film will certainly come within striking distance of The Lion King 3D’s opening.  Expect Finding Nemo 3D to swim off with about $27 million this weekend.

Sony Screen Gems’ fifth chapter in popular video game inspired series Resident Evil: Retribution 3D arrives in theatres this weekend and should help lift the box office out of the gutter it has been in the last few weeks.  The movie is once again written and directed by Paul W.S. Anderson and stars his beautiful wife Milla Jovovich.  The Resident Evil films have increased their box office take with each film, a rarity that seldom happens, especially on the fourth installment.  The second and third films topped out at about $50 million each domestically while 2010’s Resident Evil: Afterlife 3D grossed $60.1 million.  The addition of 3D goosed the grosses a bit in the States but the film outperformed the other movies in the series by a huge margin worldwide.  The third film managed a respectable $146.2 million worldwide, but that number leaped to $295.9 million for the fourth installment.

While any series on its fifth film would be hard-pressed to continue the upward momentum, the latest film should perform relatively on par with the last film.  It will probably open with slightly less than the last film and likely gross a little less in the end as well, but nonetheless, Resident Evil: Retribution 3D will likely be the second highest grossing film in the franchise.  There is basically no chance of bringing in a new audience (domestically) for the series at this late date, but the fans of the series will likely stay loyal and purchase a ticket.  The best comparison would be the Underworld films which have also remained consistent at the box office over the course of four movies.  Of course, Resident Evil is a film ahead of Underworld, but one can expect that a fifth film in the werewolf/vampire saga would also perform like its predecessors.  Look for Resident Evil: Retribution 3D to scare up about $26 million this weekend.

To see the rest of my predictions for the weekend, check out the chart below.

Weekend Release Schedule, 2012 vs. 2011

All debuting titles for the weekend are in red.

SEPTEMBER 14-16 2012

SEPTEMBER 16-18 2011

Based on my estimates for the weekend, total box office will be down about 25.6% from 2011.

Preview of Films Opening Next Weekend

Predictions for the Weekend of SEPTEMBER 21 – 23, 2012

There are two new films opening in wide release during the weekend of September 14-16: Sony Screen Gems releases the fifth installment of its popular zombie apocalypse series, Resident Evil: Retribution 3D and Disney dips into the well once again with the release of Pixar’s classic Finding Nemo in 3D. The Resident Evil movies have remained rather consistent at the box office over the years and the latest chapter looks as though it will continue the trend. Disney found major success with the release of The Lion King in 3D but their 3D release of Beauty and the Beast didn’t fare quite as well. The fish out of the ocean tale will likely fall somewhere in between those two in terms of box office success.

Bill Bonfanti writes daily as Box Office Analyst and Film Critic for FilmGo.net.  Sign up today for FilmGo’s FREE Box Office Newsletter.  Learn More

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