By Bill Bonfanti

BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR
THE WEEKEND OF SEPTEMBER 21-23 2012

There are four new films opening in wide release this weekend:  Warner Bros. goes to bat with baseball drama Trouble with the Curve starring Clint Eastwood and Amy Adams, Relativity Media unleashes creepy, horror thriller House at the End of the Street starring Jennifer Lawrence in her first post Hunger Games role, Open Road Films releases gritty, cop drama End of Watch starring Jake Gyllenhaal and finally Lionsgate releases Dredd 3D based on the popular comic series starring Karl Urban.  It’s a tough call as to which film will land on top of the box office heap as they all appeal to different audiences, but House at the End of the Street and Trouble with the Curve will likely duke it out for box office supremacy.  Based on my estimates, the Top 10 will generate about $82 million over the weekend, down about 20.9% from last year when Disney’s The Lion King 3D and Moneyball from Sony led the overall Top 10 to a total of $103.7 million.

Despite retiring from acting, Clint Eastwood is back on the big screen as an ailing baseball scout in Warner Bros. PG-13 baseball drama Trouble with the Curve.  Amy Adams co-stars as the daughter who accompanies her father on one last scouting trip.  They are joined by Justin Timberlake, John Goodman and Matthew Lillard among others.  The film is directed by first timer Robert Lorenz who served as first assistant director on Eastwood’s Million Dollar Baby, Mystic River and Blood Work.  Obviously, Eastwood’s relationship with the director was enough to lure him out of retirement and on to the silver screen for possibly the last time ever in his storied career.

The film has a few things going in its favor this weekend.  As a baseball obsessed nation, baseball related films tend to fare well at the box office and Trouble with the Curve should be able to continue this trend.  September is a good time of the year to release baseball themed films as fans become more and more obsessed with the sport as the World Series draws nearer.  This is evidenced by the strong opening of Moneyball ($19.5 million opening) last year on this exact weekend.  That being said, no baseball related movie has ever opened with $20 million or more.  Eastwood still packs at the box office.  His last film, 2008’s Gran Torino opened in wide release with $29.5 million after playing in limited release for four weeks.  The platform release kick started strong buzz for the film which led to the superb opening, so chances are Trouble with the Curve will not be a homerun like Gran Torino.

Amy Adams has become a bit of a draw at the box office herself after starring in many hits such as Julie & Julia, The Muppets, Enchanted and The Fighter.  Adams also co-stars in The Master which expands wide this weekend after a very successful limited run.  The rest of the cast is solid and will help convince moviegoers that this is a film they need to see.  Reviews have been mixed, but tend to land more near the positive side.  The only thing that could truly hurt Trouble with the Curve is political backlash from Eastwood’s empty chair routine at the Republican Convention a few weeks back.  While some moviegoers will definitely be turned off by this, it shouldn’t affect the films performance all that much.  Expect Trouble with the Curve to be a solid double with a $17 million debut.

Relativity Media’s PG-13 horror entry House at the End of the Street stars Jennifer Lawrence in her first role since her starring role in box office juggernaut The Hunger Games.   Lawrence plays a young who moves into a house with her mother that is next door to a house where two parents were brutally murdered by their young daughter.  She soon learns that there is more going on in that house that originally thought.  The haunted house genre tends to fare fairly well at the box office and with Lawrence in the lead, House at the End of the Street should be a solid hit.  Lawrence has a legion of fans since playing Katniss in The Hunger Games and this should be a film that most of those young fans will embrace.

Lawrence’s fanbase is as fervent as Kristen Stewart’s fans were after she starred in Twilight, but many of her follow up films didn’t connect at the box office, despite the huge following.  This will likely not be the case here because House at the End of the Street is a PG-13 horror movie aimed directly at her teenage fanbase.  Stewart starred in many small indie films after Twilight that didn’t capture her fans, but this past summer’s Snow White and the Huntsman did big business because it played to that audience.  PG-13 horror films tend to open in the low teens, but this should do slightly better because of Lawrence.  The films potential is stifled a bit from newcomers End of Watch and Dredd 3D who will sell to young men who otherwise might’ve been interested in the haunted house thriller.  The film is also opening a few short weeks after fellow PG-13 horror flick The Possession which will also dampen its potential a bit.  To put things in perspective, this past February’s haunted house tale The Woman in Black starring Harry Potter himself, opened with $20.9 million.  House at the End of the Street should frighten its way to a $16 million debut.

End of Watch from Open Road Films stars Jake Gyllenhaal and Michael Pena as two police officers who are marked for death after confiscating a small cache of money and guns from members of a cartel during a routine traffic stop.  The R-rated gritty, cop thriller is directed by David Ayer whose prior credits include Street Kings starring Keanu Reeves and Harsh Times starring Christian Bale.  Gyllenhaal is the type of actor who continues to take different roles and it is winning him over fans with each passing film.  He’s not a huge box office draw now, but he is primed to explode at some point.  Sort of like Johnny Depp, although Gyllenhaal’s choices aren’t nearly as quirky as the Mad Hatter’s.

End of Watch will likely not have a huge opening for a few reasons, although it could become a sleeper hit based on the strong reviews.  Gyllenhaal aside, the other actors have zero pull at the box office.  Michael Pena is more of a character actor and co-star Anna Kendrick hasn’t anchored her own film yet despite appearing in many hits.  This may change next week with the release of her starring vehicle Pitch Perfect, but probably not.  Gritty cop movies are also a tough sell at the box office and the film almost has a found footage look to it which may detract older audiences.  Distributor Open Road Films also does not have a strong track record with recent duds Hit & Run and Lockout being their last two films.  Add to the fact that End of Watch and Dredd 3D are going to nullify each other in terms of young men, and it is not looking like the film will have a strong debut.  Look for End of Watch to arrest about $10 million this weekend.

Lionsgate attempts to reboot a franchise with Dredd 3D based on comic book character Judge Dredd.  This time around, Karl Urban, best known for his role as Bones in Star Trek, dons the helmet and the armor, stepping into boots once filled by Sylvester Stallone.  Although this type of film generally gets dredd-ful reviews, Dredd 3D has been wowing critics.  This isn’t going to help matters as the film arrives with many negatives this weekend.  First, the R-rating is going to hurt, keeping out teenage boys who otherwise might’ve steered this film into hit territory.  They’ll now be seeing House at the End of the Street instead.  The character is also not that well-known.  Most people know of him from 1995’s Judge Dredd starring Stallone and that film disappointed to say the very least.  The film has absolutely no star power in the form of Urban and the supporting cast which consists of Olivia Thirlby and Lena Heady isn’t going to help matters.  The film also has major competition from all three of the other new releases as well as Resident Evil: Retribution 3D.  The higher ticket prices for 3D showings are also going to serve as a detriment for the film.  Look for Dredd 3D to execute about $9 million this weekend.

To see the rest of my predictions for the weekend, check out the chart below.

Weekend Release Schedule, 2012 vs. 2011

All debuting titles for the weekend are in red.

SEPTEMBER 21-23 2012

SEPTEMBER 23-25 2011

Based on my estimates for the weekend, total box office will be down about 20.9% from 2011.

Preview of Films Opening Next Weekend

Predictions for the Weekend of SEPTEMBER 28 – 30, 2012

There are three new films opening in wide release during the weekend of September 28-30: Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Bruce Willis star in trippy, sci-fi action pic Looper from TriStar Pictures, Adam Sandler and his buddies invite you to animated comedy Hotel Transylvania from Sony and Anna Kendrick gets gleeful in singing competition comedy Pitch Perfect from Universal. Both Looper and Hotel Transylvania have the potential to take the top spot and it will certainly be a tight race. Pitch Perfect will likely not have that much of an impact at the box office.

Bill Bonfanti writes daily as Box Office Analyst and Film Critic for FilmGo.net.  Sign up today for FilmGo’s FREE Box Office Newsletter.  Learn More

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